115,000 Jobs. Nobody Feels It.
What's behind the headline number
The April jobs report came in stronger than expected. The narrative says the labor market is fragile. Both things are true. The economics is in the gap between the numbers and the “vibes”.
This week’s episode of The Weekly Rap is out now. Jonathan Marx and I recorded it on Friday morning, minutes after the report dropped. Listen to the link below.
Jobs Report Summary
April’s jobs report landed Friday at 8:30 a.m.: 115,000 new jobs, unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected around 55,000. The actual numbers more than doubled the forecast.
That should feel like good news.
The Industry Breakdown
Healthcare led the way with 37,000 new jobs, right in line with its 12-month average. Retail added 22,000. Transportation and warehousing added 30,000.
The Numbers Under the Headline
Beyond the headline numbers, here’s what deserves more attention:
PART-TIME FOR ECONOMIC REASONS: UP 445,000
Nearly half a million additional workers are part-time, not by choice. Either their hours were cut, or they couldn’t find full-time work. That number jumped sharply in April and now sits at 4.9 million. The unemployment rate doesn’t capture this. These are employed people, by the BLS definition. But they’re not employed the way they want to be. This is a trend that deserves keeping an eye on.
FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT: DOWN 348,000 SINCE OCTOBER 2024
Federal government employment fell by another 9,000 in April. Since its peak in October 2024, the federal workforce is down 11.5%.
WAREHOUSING: UP 30,000 IN APRIL, BUT DOWN 105,000 FROM ITS PEAK
This was the number that stopped me on Friday morning during our podcast. It seemed large, and I had to go back to evaluate the trend. It turns out that employment in transportation and warehousing, although it added 30,000 jobs, is still 105,000 below its February 2025 peak. But the monthly gain is real.
INFORMATION SECTOR: DOWN 342,000 SINCE NOVEMBER 2022
Telecom, motion picture, and data processing are all continuing to shed jobs. The information sector has now lost 11% of its workforce from its peak. This is the category most associated with tech employment. It is not recovering.
Dr. A’s Take
The headline number is better than expected, but job growth remains below previous years. The composition of jobs underneath it is telling a more complicated story. Part-time work spiked for economic reasons. Federal employment continues its structural decline. The information sector keeps contracting. And warehousing, despite a good month, is still well below where it was a year ago. It is easy to get swept up in the +115,000 new jobs created; it sounds good only because we were expecting worse.
On This Week’s Pod
If you haven’t listened to our pod, Jack and I covered the following:
The jobs number and what surprised me about the data
Why the labor market data and the market narrative keep diverging
GameStop’s bid for eBay, and what Ryan Cohen’s CNBC interview reveals about communication and markets
Why Decode Econ is changing its format, and what that means for you
Jack’s summer plans, and what five months of building Decode Econ together has looked like from his perspective
Listen to The Weekly Rap
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Healthcare has been carrying the economy job growth for nearly a year now.
The participation rate falling is worrisome. Some of that I can see as Federal Employees who left/were pushed out at end of Fiscal 2025 (Sept 30th) still not finding rolls.
Does anyone know of good research into why we still see the level of HS or less in the 25 yr and up category continuing at roughtly 10,000 monthly? Does this reflect incarceration, which means we're failing to educate properly while under our "roof"?
Teen Black employment is most likely displaced by retirees coming back into lower skill jobs to suppliment SS, that trend isn't good for either end of the age population.