Are Trump’s Tariffs Legal?
Also, travel is about to get more complicated
Over the past couple of weeks, something beautiful has happened: readers have started sending topic requests. That’s a sign of trust and curiosity, and the community we’re building together.
This one comes from Professor Teressa Elliott.
Tariffs are Illegal?
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of President Trump’s tariffs. Both liberal and conservative justices expressed skepticism about the legal foundation of those tariffs, suggesting the president may have overstepped Congress’s constitutional authority to tax.
Prediction markets agree. On Polymarket, the odds that Trump’s tariffs survive dropped from 50% to 25% in a single day. A ruling against the administration could force the government to refund billions in tariff revenue.
The End of Tariffs?
The underlying tariff economic strategy is critical to the Trump administration’s identity, and therefore, it is unlikely to disappear. Expect tariffs to return under a new executive order or policy framework.
Airline Travel Will Be More Difficult Starting Friday
Beginning Friday, the Trump administration will reduce air traffic at 40 airports due to staffing shortages caused by the ongoing government shutdown. Roughly 3500 to 4000 daily flights are expected to be impacted by this change. Air traffic controllers, who are missing their second paycheck, are taking second jobs or calling in sick in protest.
A reminder: the 2019 government shutdown ended when 10 air traffic controllers, six in northern Virginia and four in Florida, caused New York’s LaGuardia airport to shut down, resulting in delays at other major hubs, including those in New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Atlanta.
For our local readers, CVG will be among the airports affected. With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, this could make for one of the most difficult holiday travel seasons in recent memory.
Economically, every grounded flight has a ripple effect on local economies, resulting in lost tourism, lower productivity, and reduced consumer spending. If this extends to Thanksgiving, you can add lost family connections and memories to the list.
The Bottom Line
Both stories share a theme: policy uncertainty. Whether it’s tariffs or travel, uncertainty is costly. It makes businesses hesitate, markets jitter, and people anxious.
What economic stories are you watching?
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Generally, Investment in manufacturing was down in October -- investment in AI infrastructure is carrying business investment, as it has since 2022.