I didn't feel the increase in grocery prices a few years back when it was spiking, likely because my typical basket didn't seem to change much. Over the past few months, though, I seem to have gotten hit with the same increases others saw before. I look at my total at checkout and wonder what changed so much.
I'm not typically an anxious person, but I can feel it creeping in.
The facts you stated are not easy to feel comfortable with when you care about the economy . As @ Dr. Jeni Albahrani said :” You are never grumpy.” I totally agree with her and I know you are always optimistic and looking at the positive side. It is hard time and hopefully it shall pass.
What can we take away from stagflation in the 1970s as it relates to how individuals can insulate themselves from the possibility of it happening again?
Private credit typically functions as an illiquid asset with a redemption gate averaging 5% (using Apollo, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley and Ares as models). The contract language spells out the risk-management pretty clearly for redemptions.
Blue Owl is classic mismatched expectations with customers not fully understanding the investments being made on their behalf typically being longer-termed loans.
Too many think Private Credit is similar to an ETF.
There may also be too much leveraging in higher net worth individuals. Those redemptions could be exposing expected yield curve being distorted by "That Iranian Folly" (not a war, not a police action... guess the Historians get to name it later.)
*Stop looking at your investments... it's an Optimism Bias/Planning Fallacy trap. By underestimating the complexity and variance of a task, you get caught up in the shortened timeframe. Belief formation bias distorted by optimism (present bias) and loss-aversion.
Currently Asian countries are rationing fuel, certain foods and smaller areas are suffering power outages. The UK is headed in that general direction without a steady, reliable supply of fuel for transport. (I don't recall the specifics of the National Emergency Fuel Plan, but I know average citizens are last on the list.)
I didn't feel the increase in grocery prices a few years back when it was spiking, likely because my typical basket didn't seem to change much. Over the past few months, though, I seem to have gotten hit with the same increases others saw before. I look at my total at checkout and wonder what changed so much.
I'm not typically an anxious person, but I can feel it creeping in.
The facts you stated are not easy to feel comfortable with when you care about the economy . As @ Dr. Jeni Albahrani said :” You are never grumpy.” I totally agree with her and I know you are always optimistic and looking at the positive side. It is hard time and hopefully it shall pass.
Glad to read you "want to be an optimistic economist"!
You can!
What can we take away from stagflation in the 1970s as it relates to how individuals can insulate themselves from the possibility of it happening again?
Private credit typically functions as an illiquid asset with a redemption gate averaging 5% (using Apollo, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley and Ares as models). The contract language spells out the risk-management pretty clearly for redemptions.
Blue Owl is classic mismatched expectations with customers not fully understanding the investments being made on their behalf typically being longer-termed loans.
Too many think Private Credit is similar to an ETF.
There may also be too much leveraging in higher net worth individuals. Those redemptions could be exposing expected yield curve being distorted by "That Iranian Folly" (not a war, not a police action... guess the Historians get to name it later.)
*Stop looking at your investments... it's an Optimism Bias/Planning Fallacy trap. By underestimating the complexity and variance of a task, you get caught up in the shortened timeframe. Belief formation bias distorted by optimism (present bias) and loss-aversion.
It is valid to be fearful. In the tax office I’ve seen hundreds of people reflect similar worries this season. Too many of us are quietly terrified.
Trump's war is having the same impact around the world. In the UK it is effectively wiping out any propect of a growing economy.
Currently Asian countries are rationing fuel, certain foods and smaller areas are suffering power outages. The UK is headed in that general direction without a steady, reliable supply of fuel for transport. (I don't recall the specifics of the National Emergency Fuel Plan, but I know average citizens are last on the list.)
You are never grumpy