How do Government Shutdowns End?
Economic data, data on previous shutdowns, and federal worker pay.
Depending on how you trained your algorithm, your feed is either filled with content blaming Republicans for the shutdown or content blaming Democrats. The reality is more complicated. This is not solely the fault of one party. It is a failure of government and of the political culture voters have allowed to develop.
As a society, instead of asking what the United States needs, we are consumed with blaming the other side. Monday’s Decode Econ article highlighted this very point. Each party spent the past week positioning itself as the victim, insisting the other party was responsible, when in truth, both sides knew this outcome was coming and allowed it to happen.
Rather than dwelling on blame, let us focus on how we got here and how this might end. We will examine how previous shutdowns ended.
How We Got Here
Wednesday’s shutdown follows weeks of conflict between Democrats and Republicans over how to keep the government open. Earlier this month, Democrats rejected a Republican stopgap spending bill that would have extended government funding for nine weeks. They argued the bill fell short because it did not expand healthcare coverage, extend soon-to-expire Affordable Care Act subsidies, or reverse Medicaid cuts contained in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
In a last-minute effort on Tuesday to avert a shutdown, Senate Republicans failed to pass another stopgap bill that would have extended funding until November 21. The measure received a 55-45 vote, short of the 60 needed. Two Democrats, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, along with independent Angus King of Maine, joined Republicans in support.
Republicans, for their part, rejected a Democratic bill that would have extended funding through October and increased healthcare spending by more than $1 trillion. That bill failed 47-53, with no Republican support.
What to Expect
The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 34 days, from late 2018 into early 2019, during Trump’s first term. The current trajectory suggests we may be heading down a similar path. See the table below for a summary of other shutdowns.
Despite the term “shutdown,” the government does not actually grind to a halt. Much of it continues to operate, though federal employees are either furloughed or forced to work without pay. They will eventually be reimbursed when a budget is passed, but in the meantime, many face real financial strain. With most Americans living paycheck to paycheck, the uncertainty can be devastating.
This time carries an additional twist. President Trump has threatened not only to furlough workers but to fire many of them outright. That threat, if carried out, would leave the government even less efficient, even as key functions remain technically open.
Some services are unaffected. Social Security checks will continue to be sent out. Medicare payments will continue. Veterans’ health care, border enforcement, and the National Weather Service will continue operating. The military and national security agencies will continue to operate.
Employment Situation - The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments announced on Monday that their statistical agencies would halt economic data releases in the event of a partial government shutdown, including closely watched employment data for September, construction spending, and possibly international trade data for August.
How These Shutdowns End
The last shutdown under Trump ended only when ten air traffic controllers failed to show up for work, temporarily halting flights at LaGuardia Airport in New York. That moment forced lawmakers’ hands.
Shutdowns themselves are a relatively new phenomenon in American politics. They did not exist before 1980. That year, President Jimmy Carter’s attorney general, Benjamin Civiletti, issued a legal opinion under the Antideficiency Act. He ruled that when Congress fails to pass appropriations, agencies must cease operations except for essential functions.
Before Civiletti’s memo, funding lapses occurred, but agencies continued as normal. During Carter’s presidency alone, there were five such gaps between 1977 and 1979, each lasting at least eight days. No one thought to close the doors. Civiletti’s interpretation in 1980 changed the precedent. For the first time, government workers were ordered to stop operations when funding expired. That legal opinion created what we now recognize as the modern “shutdown.”
Here is a summary of each shutdown, including the causes and what triggered the resolution.
The Bottom Line
What we are witnessing is a failure of governance. The political climate rewards division over compromise, and point-scoring over problem-solving. Regardless of party affiliation, what the American economy needs is stability and clarity. Businesses need certainty to plan, and families need predictability to build their lives. Until government leaders provide it, people wait, and they hold back on living their lives.