Thank you for an excellent post. One slightly tangential issue I would like to inquire about: the price of fertilizer just as the planting season occurs in the Northern hemisphere -- this will raise food prices by Fall. Do you have a good estimate by how much?
I do not. But I was listening to some farmer interviews and I got the idea that this is less of a quantity issue and it might impact quality of produce.
talked myself into looking. Here is an article from The Atlantic Council that indicates quantity of corn production will be negatively affected in the US because corn is a nitrogen-hungry crop, so farmers may shift to soybeans. The UN World Food Programme predicts 45 million poor people might face acute hunger. Also aluminum prices will rise because the Gulf countries produce raw aluminum -- a power-hungry product. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-iran-wars-economic-fallout-wont-stop-at-oil-agriculture-and-aluminum-are-next/
I believe we are seeing the divergence in Commodity Pricing vs the Physical Pricing for oil when $200 a barrel comes into play. The market for oil reacts to the signals from various news outlets while the physical pricing includes the insurance, transport, labor related expenses.
"Rises like a rocket, falls like a feather" is the most common phrase to describe oil pricing and the distillate refinery products like petrol, plastics, diesel, etc.
I'm finding that I agree with something Ray Dalio wrote this week about the globe being in a world war (note lower case). We're seeing kinetic actions in the Middle East and Soft Power tug-of-war with the addition of other global economic forces engaging in gamesmanship via material supplies to continue that kinetic action.
The US responds by tariffs, China floods markets and uses Belt and Road Initiative related goals, Russia sits on a nuclear arsenal and meddles in Africa and Ukraine (They've left Cuba long term).
Classic Triadic Game where the defection is economic ties even when there is military threats consistantly being used.
*In a nod to Jack, ordering Celcius by the case from Amazon ran $19 for 12. Yesterday that same case cost $29. Aluminum and bottler fuel fees are hitting the marketplace since the Gulf region supplies 10% of global supply, and the US is a customer of that supply.
Thank you for an excellent post. One slightly tangential issue I would like to inquire about: the price of fertilizer just as the planting season occurs in the Northern hemisphere -- this will raise food prices by Fall. Do you have a good estimate by how much?
I do not. But I was listening to some farmer interviews and I got the idea that this is less of a quantity issue and it might impact quality of produce.
talked myself into looking. Here is an article from The Atlantic Council that indicates quantity of corn production will be negatively affected in the US because corn is a nitrogen-hungry crop, so farmers may shift to soybeans. The UN World Food Programme predicts 45 million poor people might face acute hunger. Also aluminum prices will rise because the Gulf countries produce raw aluminum -- a power-hungry product. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-iran-wars-economic-fallout-wont-stop-at-oil-agriculture-and-aluminum-are-next/
I believe we are seeing the divergence in Commodity Pricing vs the Physical Pricing for oil when $200 a barrel comes into play. The market for oil reacts to the signals from various news outlets while the physical pricing includes the insurance, transport, labor related expenses.
"Rises like a rocket, falls like a feather" is the most common phrase to describe oil pricing and the distillate refinery products like petrol, plastics, diesel, etc.
I'm finding that I agree with something Ray Dalio wrote this week about the globe being in a world war (note lower case). We're seeing kinetic actions in the Middle East and Soft Power tug-of-war with the addition of other global economic forces engaging in gamesmanship via material supplies to continue that kinetic action.
The US responds by tariffs, China floods markets and uses Belt and Road Initiative related goals, Russia sits on a nuclear arsenal and meddles in Africa and Ukraine (They've left Cuba long term).
Classic Triadic Game where the defection is economic ties even when there is military threats consistantly being used.
*In a nod to Jack, ordering Celcius by the case from Amazon ran $19 for 12. Yesterday that same case cost $29. Aluminum and bottler fuel fees are hitting the marketplace since the Gulf region supplies 10% of global supply, and the US is a customer of that supply.
And then they open the Straight as I typed this out.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.6/centery:26.4/zoom:9