Tariffs Show Up in the Data

Two economic data reports confirm that tariffs are working…or not working, depending on your political views. My job is to share the data.

Today, we’re examining tariff revenue data released on Friday and inflation data released today.

Tariff Revenue

On Friday, the Treasury reported an unexpected budget surplus for June. June saw a surplus of just over $27 billion, following a $316 billion deficit in May. Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and representing a 301% gain from June 2024.

It’s important to note that this brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit to $1.34 trillion, a 5% increase from the same period last year.

The increase in surplus means that U.S. firms, consumers, or both paid more in taxes. If firms passed these costs on to consumers, it would lead to higher prices.

Inflation Data

This morning, the BLS released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI). In the previous month, the CPI increased by 0.3 percent, representing a 2.7% year-over-year inflation rate.

Economists have been waiting for tariffs to show up in the CPI data. While this is only one month’s worth of data, and we need to be cautious about how much to rely on it, it’s the first sign that tariffs are passing through the economy and starting to impact prices.

Let’s see what happens next month!