I want to spend time discussing a report the BLS released last week that we all missed, but that’s important for anyone considering their career trajectory over the next 10 years.
On August 27th, the BLS released the Employment Projections and Occupational Outlook. The report forecasts labor market trends for 2025-2035. Here is a summary of the findings
The economy is expected to add 5.9 million jobs over the next decade. That accounts for a 3.5% growth rate, much slower than the 10.9% we experienced between 2015 and 2025.
Job growth will be concentrated in two sectors, utilities (+9.8%) and private health care and social assistance (+9.5%). Utility growth will be in electric power generation, transmission, and distribution as AI power demands put pressure on that energy. Health care demand is driven by an aging population and “increasing prevalence of chronic health conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes.”
The Charts
Zoom into the charts below, and you will find the individual occupations growing fastest and those declining the most over the same period.
Nurse practitioners (+41%), Physician assistants (+21.1%), and data scientists (+34.6%) are all growing fast and paying well. Based on 2025 median wages, they earn $132,300, $135,900, and $ 120,200, respectively.
On the other hand, the fastest-declining jobs are word processors and typists (-34.4%), telephone operators (-27.6%), switchboard operators (-26%), and data entry keyers (-25.5%). All of these are affected by routine-biased technological change introduced by AI.
My Take
The 5.9 million jobs created isn’t a useful number. The real story is that the labor market will grow more slowly. We will see more growth in healthcare professions and credentialed areas. AI is creating jobs in utilities, but killing jobs in routine-biased technologies.
The labor market is changing fast; employees will be asked to change, and educators and credential providers must adjust to the changing landscape. One thing is certain: the silver tsunami is here, and it will demand more services and goods. Catering to them may be a profitable strategy over the next decade.
Definitions
The term “silver tsunami” describes the significant demographic shift as the aging baby boomer generation creates many social and economic changes in society.
Routine-biased technological change (RBTC) is an economic framework explaining how automation and computers replace jobs that follow clear, repetitive rules while increasing the demand for jobs requiring problem-solving or manual flexibility
It is Jobs Week in the U.S.
These are the data releases this week
Tuesday at 10 am: JOLTS
Wednesday at 8:15 am: ADP Data
Thursday at 8:30 am: Jobless claims
Friday at 8:30 am: Employment Report
The personal anecdote economic observation... "carpet installers"? I have owned the house since 1998 and only had people in once to replace carpet. Having the majority of the house being hardwood or tile really srinks the need for the services.
DSLR cameras are impossible to easily repair. My Canon was 75% of the replacement cost for the body to repair.
AND... if we had a "Right to Repair" law we might save a portion of the electronic install/repair category. But stealerships have too tight a relationship with manufacturers to let average people make simple repairs. (Dealer wanted $450 to diagnosis and replace a relay? Amazon, $20 and 15 minutes of my time. OBDII readers are cheap!)