We are back from break and excited to continue sharing the economic news you need to know and the latest market insights to help you navigate today’s complex economy.
The PCE numbers for Insurance (up $16B) and Housing/Utilities (up $24.4B) are very concerning. There's likely some ACA rollback noise inside the insurance numbers with people having paid before subsidies were worked out. AI is creating inflation inside Electricity consumption and some weather related issue with the East Coast seeing higher snow than previous years.
Food is the seasonally adjusted mess. From my thoughts (bias), the weather related purchasing and January always has weird sub-category movement on goods related to football playoffs. It's up $8.3B
Now the "E"-shaped recovery? Dividends and the increase in COLA for Social Security pushed a little Wealth Effect with people purchasing items in post-holiday sales or spent the cash grandparents gave.
High, Middle and lower incomes strata and the divergence that occurs inside each. We saw during the Pandemic families that had their income frozen and needed to rely on social services to fill in the gaps. ($150K and needing Food Banks to help smooth the edges is definitely worth investigating.)
Individuals with the same income have different spending habits and liabilities that need better study. "K"-shaped makes too many assumptions and only addresses two income strata.
Maybe a better overall label would be "E-K" with the curve intersecting between strata?
The PCE numbers for Insurance (up $16B) and Housing/Utilities (up $24.4B) are very concerning. There's likely some ACA rollback noise inside the insurance numbers with people having paid before subsidies were worked out. AI is creating inflation inside Electricity consumption and some weather related issue with the East Coast seeing higher snow than previous years.
Food is the seasonally adjusted mess. From my thoughts (bias), the weather related purchasing and January always has weird sub-category movement on goods related to football playoffs. It's up $8.3B
Now the "E"-shaped recovery? Dividends and the increase in COLA for Social Security pushed a little Wealth Effect with people purchasing items in post-holiday sales or spent the cash grandparents gave.
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Tell me a little more about the E shaped recovery
High, Middle and lower incomes strata and the divergence that occurs inside each. We saw during the Pandemic families that had their income frozen and needed to rely on social services to fill in the gaps. ($150K and needing Food Banks to help smooth the edges is definitely worth investigating.)
Individuals with the same income have different spending habits and liabilities that need better study. "K"-shaped makes too many assumptions and only addresses two income strata.
Maybe a better overall label would be "E-K" with the curve intersecting between strata?