What I’m Watching Today

April 28th, 2026

Today is a good example of how economics, policy, and technology are colliding in real time. Three threads matter right now:

1. Oil, Geopolitics, and Inflation Risk

I joined the radio show in Chicago (WCPT 820) this week to discuss a scenario I flagged earlier: oil pushing toward extreme levels. Thanks to Bill Muck for the invite to share my views on the economy.

Recent Reuters reporting shows prices rising again as tensions with Iran escalate and negotiations stall.

What matters:

• Oil is one of the fastest channels from geopolitics → inflation

• If prices continue rising, we’re looking at renewed cost-push inflation

• That complicates everything for policymakers

• Even though the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, Americans will still see higher prices at the pump because oil prices are market-driven and global oil flows are lower today.

My take: The “$200 oil” scenario is still a tail risk—but it’s no longer unrealistic. Markets are starting to price in instability, not just supply.

2. The Fed’s Real Problem Isn’t Rates

The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow. Markets expect no change to interest rates. But, that’s not the story.

The real issue is Jerome Powell’s position.

Here’s the tension:

• The labor market is softening

• Oil-driven inflation could reaccelerate

• Policy uncertainty remains high

These signals point in opposite directions:

• Weak labor implies cut rates

• Rising inflation implies hold or hike

This is the typical issue we face when experiencing stagflation. The U.S economy is in a predicament.

My take: This isn’t about this meeting. It’s about whether the Fed is entering a phase where policy becomes reactive instead of predictive.

Also worth watching: whether Powell stays on after his term. Leadership transitions at moments like this matter more than markets admit. Chairs usually leave the board once their term ends, but political interference with the Fed might lead Powell to stay on longer.

3. AI Is Forcing a New Kind of Property Right

Taylor Swift is attempting to trademark her voice and image to prevent AI misuse. Last week, lawyers acting on behalf of the music superstar lodged three applications with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

At the same time, Oprah Winfrey is moving her content ecosystem to Amazon—leaning further into platform-controlled distribution.

These aren’t separate stories. They point to the same shift:

• Who owns digital identity?

• Who controls distribution?

• Who captures value in an AI-driven economy?

My take: We’re watching the early formation of AI-era property rights—voice, likeness, and content libraries. This will reshape contracts, media, and labor markets.

The Through Line

These stories connect: Oil is driving inflationary pressure, inflation is affecting the Fed’s strategy because labor markets send a different signal about the economy, labor markets are changing as AI reshapes value creation, and the meaning of productivity.

The environment ahead is more volatile and uncertain, and requires careful interpretation. Markets have been resilient to all that has been thrown at them. When will they begin to price in risk and uncertainty?

What I’m Watching Next

• Whether oil continues trending upward this week

• Powell’s tone (not just the rate decision)

• More public figures moving to lock down AI rights