Your article the other day on Small Business Saturday is still fresh in my mind. I understand that these job losses predated Saturday, but do you think the jobs shed by small businesses indicate that the largest firms are disproportionately driving the “resilient consumer” narrative?
The "Hospitality" catagory is seeing an uptick based on economic uncertainty related to individual income and inflation. (We're also seeing some reclassification due to immigration since "some" of the jobs are being filled by citizens where the tax records are a bit more exacting.) The number of individuals taking on second jobs is also a hedge about job situations.
Small scale retailers are unable to absorb tariff increases and have to chose cutting staff hours and owners being more present.
RTO is just a constructive firing technique.
It's going to take time for good data to be available regarding immigration effects on employment. Overall employment numbers may be negative for some time and still have an overall healthy employment situation.
I am glad you said RTO is a firing technique. I agree with that. I would love to learn more about employment numbers being negative but yet healthy in the long run ?
Sectoral shifts in employment short-term, AI, Tariffs, Seasonal being factors, potentially have little effect on the long-run employment rate. We still have "warehousing" in some sectors and companies are hiding behind AI spending as a reason for RIFs. It's the U6 Unemployment rate being lower than long-run that's more interesting than U3 rate.
With BLS shifting to annual releases, we're going to be making too many assumptions reconciling private vs Government data for December.
The concern is we're still seeing postive wage growth, demand from the higher income strata masking weakness and an Admin hostile to immigration but wants massive investment in housing?
*And a decline of 44K on a monthly basis isn't anything other than a rounding number in employment. (To the people affected? Huge issue, but not to the overall Economy.)
Your article the other day on Small Business Saturday is still fresh in my mind. I understand that these job losses predated Saturday, but do you think the jobs shed by small businesses indicate that the largest firms are disproportionately driving the “resilient consumer” narrative?
That is one possibility. I also wonder if they just have more reserves to weather the storm or are they experiencing two different economies?
Also a good consideration. It’s probably both, along with some other contributing factors.
The "Hospitality" catagory is seeing an uptick based on economic uncertainty related to individual income and inflation. (We're also seeing some reclassification due to immigration since "some" of the jobs are being filled by citizens where the tax records are a bit more exacting.) The number of individuals taking on second jobs is also a hedge about job situations.
Small scale retailers are unable to absorb tariff increases and have to chose cutting staff hours and owners being more present.
RTO is just a constructive firing technique.
It's going to take time for good data to be available regarding immigration effects on employment. Overall employment numbers may be negative for some time and still have an overall healthy employment situation.
I am glad you said RTO is a firing technique. I agree with that. I would love to learn more about employment numbers being negative but yet healthy in the long run ?
Sectoral shifts in employment short-term, AI, Tariffs, Seasonal being factors, potentially have little effect on the long-run employment rate. We still have "warehousing" in some sectors and companies are hiding behind AI spending as a reason for RIFs. It's the U6 Unemployment rate being lower than long-run that's more interesting than U3 rate.
With BLS shifting to annual releases, we're going to be making too many assumptions reconciling private vs Government data for December.
The concern is we're still seeing postive wage growth, demand from the higher income strata masking weakness and an Admin hostile to immigration but wants massive investment in housing?
*And a decline of 44K on a monthly basis isn't anything other than a rounding number in employment. (To the people affected? Huge issue, but not to the overall Economy.)
I read in a separate article manufacturing is still on the decline as well.