Let's Talk About the Cost of Breakfast

When the government doesn’t measure prices, DoorDash will happily try.

The Problem

This week, the White House used DoorDash’s “State of Local Commerce Report” to claim that the cost of breakfast has fallen for American households. Yes, federal officials are now relying on a food delivery app as evidence that inflation is improving and that “affordability” claims are overblown.

The argument rests on one statistic: a DoorDash report stating that breakfast groceries fell 14% between March and September. The Trump administration quickly amplified it as proof that affordability concerns are overblown.

But that number is not just misleading, it’s a case study in why we need strong, independent federal economic data. While private data may provide a snapshot of the economy, it cannot be the sole source of data. Let’s dig into this story.

The Economics

Here’s the problem: DoorDash’s 14% drop comes from its own “Breakfast Basics Index,” which includes only four items:

• 3 eggs

• a glass of milk

• a bagel

• an avocado

That’s it. No coffee. No cereal. No bread. No orange juice. Nothing that actually shows the full cost of breakfast in America.

And even within those four items, the decline is driven almost entirely by egg prices, which have collapsed by more than 70% after the spring bird flu spike earlier this year. Meanwhile, other breakfast staples have also seen price increases. Coffee prices have risen by more than 80% this year due to drought conditions.

This is the danger of relying on private company data, as their methodology is unclear, sample sizes are either low or not disclosed, and the extent of the geography they cover is not defined. While ADP has become a reliable source of jobs data, it is only one source, and its reports are also taken with a grain of salt because its data is not representative in nature¹. Finally, the private data partner’s motives behind their reports might be biased.

In this case, reporting suggests that DoorDash has been actively positioning itself as a “good partner” to the administration, raising even more questions about objectivity.

CPI Data

Economists rely on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) because federal data is transparent, consistent, and replicable. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website, here is how CPI is collected

BLS data collectors visit (in person, on the web, or using apps) or call thousands of retail stores, service establishments, rental units, and doctors’ offices, all over the United States to obtain information on the prices of the thousands of items used to track and measure price changes in the CPI. We record the prices of about 80,000 items each month, representing a scientifically selected sample of the prices paid by consumers for goods and services purchased.

According to recent data, Inflation is down from 9% in the summer of 2022 but has been increasing over the past several months. The September 2025 reading was 3.0%, higher than the 2% target. The White House says that, due to the shutdown, the October CPI and Jobs report may never be released. We may never know what happened to the labor market and prices in October.

The Bottom Line

Inflation is not measured by the price of breakfast bagels on DoorDash. It’s measured by the BLS using 80,000 prices collected across the country, with methods that we can evaluate and debate.

When politics replaces data, the conversation shifts from “What’s happening?” to “Which number makes us look good?” And when critical institutions, like the BLS, are weakened or frozen during government shutdowns, that’s exactly what happens.

This isn’t about Democrats vs. Republicans. It’s about whether American households receive honest information about the cost of things. The economy is already complex; let’s not complicate it further by increasing noise and reducing the reliability of information.

Affordability is one of the biggest concerns for American households, and it deserves better than the selective metrics currently used. Without accurate federal data, we can’t truly understand where the pressure points are or how to relieve them. Grocery prices are just one part of the picture. Honest measurement is the first step toward real policy solutions.

Reader Question: How do you define affordability?

1. Professor Chris Bollinger from Gatton College of Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky notes: “The ADP data - which I like - are not a random sample. To make it ‘more representative,” ADP uses weights which it constructs from BLS QCEW data. ADP can’t really provide its numbers without some input from BLS data.