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Lary Doe's avatar

Toy Model Time!!!

Duke probablity of making it to Round of 8

Round of 64 against 16th ranked Sienna - 0.99

Round of 32 against 8/9 ranked "?" - 0.85

Sweet 16 against 4/5 ranked "?" - 0.75

P= 0.99*0.85*0.75 = 0.63

Louisville probability to round of 8

Round of 64 against 11th ranked USF - 0.65

Round of 32 against 3rd Seed Michigan St. - 0.40

Sweet Sixteen against 2nd Seed UConn - 0.30

P= 0.65*0.40*0.30 = 0.078

Final Probability

Duke v. Louisville = 0.63*0.078 = 0.04914

≈ 4.9% or a 1-in-20 chance!

MS from Duke... Go Blue Devils!!!

*Cost for me to go to Capital One Center in D.C.? Too much, I'll watch from home. ($400 a ticket for dual session on Thursday in the rafters.)

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