I grew up in Kentucky, the center of the college basketball universe.
Toy Model Time!!!
Duke probablity of making it to Round of 8
Round of 64 against 16th ranked Sienna - 0.99
Round of 32 against 8/9 ranked "?" - 0.85
Sweet 16 against 4/5 ranked "?" - 0.75
P= 0.99*0.85*0.75 = 0.63
Louisville probability to round of 8
Round of 64 against 11th ranked USF - 0.65
Round of 32 against 3rd Seed Michigan St. - 0.40
Sweet Sixteen against 2nd Seed UConn - 0.30
P= 0.65*0.40*0.30 = 0.078
Final Probability
Duke v. Louisville = 0.63*0.078 = 0.04914
≈ 4.9% or a 1-in-20 chance!
MS from Duke... Go Blue Devils!!!
*Cost for me to go to Capital One Center in D.C.? Too much, I'll watch from home. ($400 a ticket for dual session on Thursday in the rafters.)
Lary, you are on top of the rankings after the first round! Also, watching sports in real life is not as comfortable as watching them at home on the couch.
Interesting information. Even though I spent 3 years at the graduate school at the University of Louisville but never knew this.
Toy Model Time!!!
Duke probablity of making it to Round of 8
Round of 64 against 16th ranked Sienna - 0.99
Round of 32 against 8/9 ranked "?" - 0.85
Sweet 16 against 4/5 ranked "?" - 0.75
P= 0.99*0.85*0.75 = 0.63
Louisville probability to round of 8
Round of 64 against 11th ranked USF - 0.65
Round of 32 against 3rd Seed Michigan St. - 0.40
Sweet Sixteen against 2nd Seed UConn - 0.30
P= 0.65*0.40*0.30 = 0.078
Final Probability
Duke v. Louisville = 0.63*0.078 = 0.04914
≈ 4.9% or a 1-in-20 chance!
MS from Duke... Go Blue Devils!!!
*Cost for me to go to Capital One Center in D.C.? Too much, I'll watch from home. ($400 a ticket for dual session on Thursday in the rafters.)
Lary, you are on top of the rankings after the first round! Also, watching sports in real life is not as comfortable as watching them at home on the couch.
Interesting information. Even though I spent 3 years at the graduate school at the University of Louisville but never knew this.