Rethinking “Opportunity Youth”

7.3 million disconnected workers

I was invited to speak with the NKY Works Advisory Board about the number of young people who are disconnected from work and school. In NKY, we call them opportunity youth, and as new research shows, the challenge is much larger than we thought.

But before diving into the numbers, I want to recognize the people doing the hard work on the ground.

NKY Works, under the leadership of Correy Eimer, Director of NKY Works and the NKY Workforce Investment Board, and Dr. Vicki Berling, Workforce Integrator, is at the center of workforce development in our region. Their mission is straightforward and critical:

NKY Works leads and integrates workforce development throughout Northern Kentucky, giving employers one place to access data, partners, and best practices to attract, grow, and retain talent.

This is the kind of regional leadership that allows us to confront real economic challenges with real solutions.

Let’s discuss the “opportunity youth” and the challenges they face.

We’re Undercounting Disconnected Youth

For years, the U.S. has relied on a simple definition of opportunity youth:
16–24-year-olds who are neither in school nor working.

But that definition hides a major piece of the story.

According to a new RAND study, the true number of opportunity youth is 74% higher than the traditional estimate, because millions of working young people remain economically disconnected.

Think of a 20-year-old working full-time but earning less than the federal poverty line ($15,060). They’re technically “employed,” but not on a pathway to stability or upward mobility. RAND argues they should count, too—and I agree.

When we include this group, the total jumps to 7.3 million disconnected youth nationwide.

And here in Northern Kentucky, NKY Works estimates 6,000 opportunity youth in our region based on traditional estimates of disconnected youth. Based on the RAND study, the true number must be higher than previously estimated. These are young people whose full potential is being left on the table.

The Economics: Why Traditional Labor Metrics Miss the Mark

During my talk, I walked through the basics of the U.S. labor market:

• Unemployment rate: who’s jobless and actively looking

• Labor force participation: who’s working or looking

• Employment-population ratio: who’s working at all

• Marginally attached and discouraged workers: people on the edge of the labor market

You can access my presentation at the end of this column

Understanding the data helps us capture the young person who’s given up looking and is no longer considered unemployed. Or the young person working 25 hours a week at $9/hour with no path forward. Or the young parent without childcare, whose potential is put on pause.

The RAND study connects these dots. It shows:

• Disconnection is persistent—more than half last over a year

• Rural youth, Black youth, and young men face a higher risk

• 10% remain disconnected for four years or more

• And, increasing high school graduation alone won’t solve this

The labor market is facing headwinds, AI, automation, and a cooling labor market, which will only narrow the on-ramp to stable work. ADP’s recent release that private companies lost 35,000 jobs last month is a concerning sign of what is ahead for all of us, but even more critically for opportunity youth.

This is why NKY Works’ integrated, regional approach matters. Workforce challenges don’t sit neatly inside one institution. Solutions can’t either.

The Bottom Line

Here’s the takeaway I shared with the Board:

The way we define opportunity youth shapes the solutions we build. And the standard definition doesn’t match the economic reality young people face today.

If we want to reverse the trends, we need to:

• Detect early signs of disconnection

• Provide wraparound support—transportation, childcare, mental health, coaching

• Expand paid work experiences and apprenticeships

• Build flexible, skills-first pathways

• Strengthen employer–school partnerships

• Treat opportunity youth as a talent pipeline, not a deficit

This is the work NKY Works is already leading. And it’s what leaders like Correy Eimer and Dr. Vicki Berling champion every day. The NKY Advisory Board is a diverse group of passionate individuals who are committed to making a difference in our community.

Northern Kentucky doesn’t have to accept a generation lost to disconnection.
We can build a region where every young person—every one—has a pathway to economic mobility.

If this topic resonates with you, share this newsletter with someone who cares about the future of our workforce.

PowerPoint Slides

Opportunity Youth 12

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