For me the multijob numbers are always scary. I think about all the issues that come from this. I think about the kids sitting at home with no parent present because they are working multiple jobs and the impact that has on their education. I think about all the mental health issues and general lack of free-time and how that hurts society as a whole. Employment numbers can be such a cold number because first off, unemployment is not a number it is human beings, and also employment numbers can look great until you realize the multiple jobs aspect and the fact that for some people it takes more than one job to exist.
Thank you, Dr. A., for this data report. It would be helpful to compare these layoffs to those from the same winter period last year, as for some industries seasonal layoffs related to winter conditions are common.
The connection between #3 and #5 is concerning to me. I’m not an economist—I work in financial wellness and some of work is with teens and young adults, the majority of whom are Black. This is ominous economic news, especially when considering Mr. Pierson’s comments about parents possibly working multiple jobs and what that might mean to their kids. My goal is to educate people about personal finances and financial systems, and how to navigate them well, but it’s more and more challenging when there is this ongoing unease and vulnerability and negative impact. I think about the origins of my own money ideas, and I know what’s happening now may shape youth perceptions about finances—for the country and as individuals—and guide their actions for a long time to come.
Dr. Mauthe, thanks for your perspective. The implications for kids and families can be long-lasting. I gave a talk a couple of months ago on how economics can explain a lot about generations and how they navigate the economy. It is easy to detach from the problem by quoting aggregate data measures, but behind those numbers are real people.
There are many points of concern, and the Teen Unemployment rate at 16.3%, bolstered by the recent college graduate unemployment at 15%-18% (pending the source) is very troubling. For our future employment pool to grow and mature, these are critical years for them to begin skill building so they can grow into a career and have a better chance of not having to hold two jobs. The headline unemployment rate never really captures the picture, like the M-6 commented on below, that is the real rate - we are worse off than we think - with job revisions coming as data flow is restored, we need some help (lower rates) to add some motivation to spend capital to grow our businesses! In 2025 we downsized by 5 (of 10) and in 2026 we plan to add only 2 back. Some was outsourced some was simply absorbed by those of us left. We are working harder, longer and for no more pay/profit. All that tells us to be cautious and pull back on spending, that is the next key data point to be impacted. We are lucky to live in USA, but we are not without challenges!
Excellent. You would be unsurprised that I cannot resist commenting on more than one point, but I will be as brief as possible. 1. Regarding rise in unemployment: The combination of data that you adduce demonstrates your point perfectly. The only thing I would add, for the sake of non-economists, is that it is always useful to reinforce that the "official" unemployment number in the US is people who have been looking for work IN THE LAST MONTH. Many of them are in effect being paid to look for work, as receiving unemployment benefits" requires specifically that one report looking for work MONTHLY. It lasts for 6 months in the US. Those who look for work longer than this are a. not finding work, b. really desperate for an income, because they are still looking, even when they aren't finding anything and receive no money for reporting their useless search. So the rise is people "working part-time for economic reasons" is important, and the rise in long-term unemployment is important. This is why I emphasize "M-6" -- the unemployment number shown on the BLS website as "Table A-15. Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization" -- it seems to me this is a better single-number indication of the extent to which the labor market is not serving US workers. M-6 is currently 8.7% as of Nov -- up from 8.0% in September -- that is a HUGE leap.
2. When you report the increase in wages, 3.5% seems pretty good, given that the latest inflation report showed a rate of 3.0% for the 12 months ending September (a new report is coming out tomorrow). To clarify why that is in fact NOT a good number, you need to clarify that wages fundamentally should align with productivity -- if productivity increases, then companies in real terms are making more money from the same number of labor hours, which implies that workers are producing more in the same time. Who gets that increased income? The BLS said "Labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.3 percent in 2024, following an increase of 1.6 percent in 2023 and a decrease of 1.5 percent in 2022." (https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/productivity-up-2-3-percent-in-2024.htm) In 2025 there was a fall in productivity of 1.8% in the first quarter, followed by a rise of 2.4% in the 2nd quarter. So we are seeing a ballpark rise of 2% in productivity, but only a half% rise in wages. That's the problem.
This is amazing. Having both the writing and your voice is making it extra interesting and understanding. I hope you continue having both. Your points of view come across clearly with warmth and with emphasis of certain messages you want us to get. I would love to know the reason/ reasons for why people are doing more than one job as well as age groups, kinds of jobs and which gender. Many thanks for today’s work. All the best
Without a Household Survey of any quality, the initial unemployment numbers still reflect areas where immigration affects outcomes. Construction and Healthcare being the two largest components that continue to outpace, not only for an aging population requiring more assistance, but employment situations affected by Federal policy. (Construction relative to data centers and power production still aren't clear.)
The U6 category is the only one I truly follow and without better data I'm of the belief 8.7% Unemployment is higher (even though this time of year is highly seasonal with workforce entering and leaving retail or warehousing.)
With Biden era Pandemic relief programs having their funds expended without Trump era constinuation? I would expect we start seeing firing/layoffs in State/Local in 2026 increase since the only sustainable path for some are raising taxes (not in an Election year.)
*With Trump pushing for a 1% COLA for Federal Employees, wage growth pegged to inflation is a concern. Congress may have the final decision, but they walk a tight rope Truth Social insults or staff being told their wages don't equal basic inflationary rates. Plenty of businesses hide behind Federal policy as a guiding path towards wages.
Cooling wage growth is something I hadn’t noticed in the numbers. That’s concerning given that inflation has been ticking closer and closer to 3% since April, even if it seems like it might have leveled off.
Multiple job holding tends to be pro-cyclical, rising when the economy is strong and more opportunities are available (like it did 2014-2020 and again post-pandemic). If the economy is weak and one job is hard to find, surely two jobs is harder to find.
Another metric to watch is the long term unemployed over 27 weeks - we’re at the highest level in 9 years.
I see what you are saying, however in this case we are seeing an increase in part time work and multiple job holders. This to me says that people can't find one good job, they have to rely on multiple sub-optimal jobs. Also, I assume that most people would prefer one job over multiple partial jobs.
For me the multijob numbers are always scary. I think about all the issues that come from this. I think about the kids sitting at home with no parent present because they are working multiple jobs and the impact that has on their education. I think about all the mental health issues and general lack of free-time and how that hurts society as a whole. Employment numbers can be such a cold number because first off, unemployment is not a number it is human beings, and also employment numbers can look great until you realize the multiple jobs aspect and the fact that for some people it takes more than one job to exist.
Yes, the increase in multiple jobs and part-time jobs says a lot about the state of the labor market.
Thank you, Dr. A., for this data report. It would be helpful to compare these layoffs to those from the same winter period last year, as for some industries seasonal layoffs related to winter conditions are common.
HI Jessenia, I hope you are well. Thanks for your comment!
The connection between #3 and #5 is concerning to me. I’m not an economist—I work in financial wellness and some of work is with teens and young adults, the majority of whom are Black. This is ominous economic news, especially when considering Mr. Pierson’s comments about parents possibly working multiple jobs and what that might mean to their kids. My goal is to educate people about personal finances and financial systems, and how to navigate them well, but it’s more and more challenging when there is this ongoing unease and vulnerability and negative impact. I think about the origins of my own money ideas, and I know what’s happening now may shape youth perceptions about finances—for the country and as individuals—and guide their actions for a long time to come.
Dr. Mauthe, thanks for your perspective. The implications for kids and families can be long-lasting. I gave a talk a couple of months ago on how economics can explain a lot about generations and how they navigate the economy. It is easy to detach from the problem by quoting aggregate data measures, but behind those numbers are real people.
There are many points of concern, and the Teen Unemployment rate at 16.3%, bolstered by the recent college graduate unemployment at 15%-18% (pending the source) is very troubling. For our future employment pool to grow and mature, these are critical years for them to begin skill building so they can grow into a career and have a better chance of not having to hold two jobs. The headline unemployment rate never really captures the picture, like the M-6 commented on below, that is the real rate - we are worse off than we think - with job revisions coming as data flow is restored, we need some help (lower rates) to add some motivation to spend capital to grow our businesses! In 2025 we downsized by 5 (of 10) and in 2026 we plan to add only 2 back. Some was outsourced some was simply absorbed by those of us left. We are working harder, longer and for no more pay/profit. All that tells us to be cautious and pull back on spending, that is the next key data point to be impacted. We are lucky to live in USA, but we are not without challenges!
Thanks John. I appreciate your perspective on the extra work those left behind have to do. It is another cost to downsizing.
Excellent. You would be unsurprised that I cannot resist commenting on more than one point, but I will be as brief as possible. 1. Regarding rise in unemployment: The combination of data that you adduce demonstrates your point perfectly. The only thing I would add, for the sake of non-economists, is that it is always useful to reinforce that the "official" unemployment number in the US is people who have been looking for work IN THE LAST MONTH. Many of them are in effect being paid to look for work, as receiving unemployment benefits" requires specifically that one report looking for work MONTHLY. It lasts for 6 months in the US. Those who look for work longer than this are a. not finding work, b. really desperate for an income, because they are still looking, even when they aren't finding anything and receive no money for reporting their useless search. So the rise is people "working part-time for economic reasons" is important, and the rise in long-term unemployment is important. This is why I emphasize "M-6" -- the unemployment number shown on the BLS website as "Table A-15. Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization" -- it seems to me this is a better single-number indication of the extent to which the labor market is not serving US workers. M-6 is currently 8.7% as of Nov -- up from 8.0% in September -- that is a HUGE leap.
2. When you report the increase in wages, 3.5% seems pretty good, given that the latest inflation report showed a rate of 3.0% for the 12 months ending September (a new report is coming out tomorrow). To clarify why that is in fact NOT a good number, you need to clarify that wages fundamentally should align with productivity -- if productivity increases, then companies in real terms are making more money from the same number of labor hours, which implies that workers are producing more in the same time. Who gets that increased income? The BLS said "Labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.3 percent in 2024, following an increase of 1.6 percent in 2023 and a decrease of 1.5 percent in 2022." (https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2025/productivity-up-2-3-percent-in-2024.htm) In 2025 there was a fall in productivity of 1.8% in the first quarter, followed by a rise of 2.4% in the 2nd quarter. So we are seeing a ballpark rise of 2% in productivity, but only a half% rise in wages. That's the problem.
Great points, Phillip. Also, you can always chime in on as many comments as you like :) I appreciate it.
This is amazing. Having both the writing and your voice is making it extra interesting and understanding. I hope you continue having both. Your points of view come across clearly with warmth and with emphasis of certain messages you want us to get. I would love to know the reason/ reasons for why people are doing more than one job as well as age groups, kinds of jobs and which gender. Many thanks for today’s work. All the best
Thanks for the feedback, Dr. Sana.
Without a Household Survey of any quality, the initial unemployment numbers still reflect areas where immigration affects outcomes. Construction and Healthcare being the two largest components that continue to outpace, not only for an aging population requiring more assistance, but employment situations affected by Federal policy. (Construction relative to data centers and power production still aren't clear.)
The U6 category is the only one I truly follow and without better data I'm of the belief 8.7% Unemployment is higher (even though this time of year is highly seasonal with workforce entering and leaving retail or warehousing.)
With Biden era Pandemic relief programs having their funds expended without Trump era constinuation? I would expect we start seeing firing/layoffs in State/Local in 2026 increase since the only sustainable path for some are raising taxes (not in an Election year.)
*With Trump pushing for a 1% COLA for Federal Employees, wage growth pegged to inflation is a concern. Congress may have the final decision, but they walk a tight rope Truth Social insults or staff being told their wages don't equal basic inflationary rates. Plenty of businesses hide behind Federal policy as a guiding path towards wages.
Thanks Lary, I always appreciate your perspective.
Cooling wage growth is something I hadn’t noticed in the numbers. That’s concerning given that inflation has been ticking closer and closer to 3% since April, even if it seems like it might have leveled off.
Multiple job holding tends to be pro-cyclical, rising when the economy is strong and more opportunities are available (like it did 2014-2020 and again post-pandemic). If the economy is weak and one job is hard to find, surely two jobs is harder to find.
Another metric to watch is the long term unemployed over 27 weeks - we’re at the highest level in 9 years.
I see what you are saying, however in this case we are seeing an increase in part time work and multiple job holders. This to me says that people can't find one good job, they have to rely on multiple sub-optimal jobs. Also, I assume that most people would prefer one job over multiple partial jobs.