The Employment Report Is Sending Signals
And I want your read on it
Yesterday’s Employment Situation report gives us another snapshot of the U.S. labor market, but we should proceed with caution. As I said on Marketplace, a single data point doesn’t tell a story. A collection of data points can start to build clarity. This report adds pieces to that puzzle.
Below are the numbers that stood out to me. As you read them, I want you to think about what feels most telling about the labor market right now. I would love to hear your interpretation of the data in the comments.
The Data That Matters
Jobs & Unemployment
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000).
The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, up from 4.2% a year ago.
The number of unemployed increased from 7.1 million to 7.8 million over the past year.
Who’s Hurting Most
Teen unemployment is 16.3%.
The Black–White unemployment gap remains large at 4.4 percentage points.
Layoffs Are Rising
2.5 million people are unemployed for less than 5 weeks.
That’s an increase of 316,000 in just one month—suggesting recent layoffs are driving unemployment higher.
More People Are Juggling Work
5.5 million people are working part-time for economic reasons.
That’s an increase of 909,000 since September.
The number of people holding multiple jobs rose from 8.7 million to 9.4 million, pushing the share of multiple jobholders from 5.4% to 5.8%.
This is usually a sign that people are trying to make ends meet, not that they suddenly love working two jobs.
Where Jobs Are Being Created
Healthcare: +46,000
Construction: +28,000
Federal government: –6,000, following a 162,000 loss in October
Wages
Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents (0.1%) to $36.86.
Wages are up 3.5% over the past year, continuing to cool.
Let’s Make This Interactive
Here’s where I want to hear from you:
Pick ONE and reply in the comments
Multiple jobholding rising to 5.8%
Layoffs driving unemployment higher
Teen unemployment at 16.3%
Wages still growing, but slowly
The growing gap across demographic groups
Which data point best reflects what you’re seeing—or feeling—in the labor market right now?
And if you want to go deeper:
Does this feel like a cooling labor market?
Are you seeing more people take second jobs in your industry or community?
The Bottom Line
The trend in the labor market data signals a cooling labor market.
Job growth is slowing. Layoffs are picking up. More people are working multiple jobs. Wage growth is easing. The labor market is concerning for younger workers and lower-income households trying to make ends meet.
Your experiences help add context to these numbers. Data builds clarity, but conversation completes it.
What is going on in your labor market?
Some Graphs to Show Trends
This is amazing. Having both the writing and your voice is making it extra interesting and understanding. I hope you continue having both. Your points of view come across clearly with warmth and with emphasis of certain messages you want us to get. I would love to know the reason/ reasons for why people are doing more than one job as well as age groups, kinds of jobs and which gender. Many thanks for today’s work. All the best
Without a Household Survey of any quality, the initial unemployment numbers still reflect areas where immigration affects outcomes. Construction and Healthcare being the two largest components that continue to outpace, not only for an aging population requiring more assistance, but employment situations affected by Federal policy. (Construction relative to data centers and power production still aren't clear.)
The U6 category is the only one I truly follow and without better data I'm of the belief 8.7% Unemployment is higher (even though this time of year is highly seasonal with workforce entering and leaving retail or warehousing.)
With Biden era Pandemic relief programs having their funds expended without Trump era constinuation? I would expect we start seeing firing/layoffs in State/Local in 2026 increase since the only sustainable path for some are raising taxes (not in an Election year.)
*With Trump pushing for a 1% COLA for Federal Employees, wage growth pegged to inflation is a concern. Congress may have the final decision, but they walk a tight rope Truth Social insults or staff being told their wages don't equal basic inflationary rates. Plenty of businesses hide behind Federal policy as a guiding path towards wages.