The Team is Growing. So is the Show.
The Rise of Insider Trading and Prediction Markets
I want to talk about a few things today. The new episode, the team, where we are headed, and Las Vegas.
While editing this week’s episode, I couldn’t help but smile.
Not because of the economics, though the topics are genuinely good this week. But because of Jonathan Marx.
People development is the thread that runs through everything I do. At the Haile College of Business, I get to watch undergraduate students walk in unsure of themselves and walk out ready to lead. In the Haile Graduate Programs, I work with mid-career professionals who are taking a bet on themselves and figuring out who they want to become next. And as an administrator, I take great pride in seeing my team members grow professionally.
I love being an economics professor. The most rewarding moment is when someone finds their footing, gets confident, and starts to own their space. Economics is the vehicle through which I get to mentor and help people grow. In education, we are in the people business, and I love seeing people grow.
That is what I am watching happen with Jack Marx on this podcast, and it does not get old.
I see the same look in Jack that I see in my best students, the moment when the material stops feeling like an assignment and starts feeling like something they actually care about. He is not just showing up to co-host. He is getting curious, pushing back, bringing his own perspective, and growing in real time in front of the microphone. That energy is contagious, and it is making every episode more fun than the last.
Watch this week’s episode and tell me you don’t see it. Whether it was the topics, the K-shaped economy, congressional trading, prediction markets, or the fact that he was hours away from his first trip to New York, something clicked. The energy is there. The curiosity is there. This is what Decode Econ is supposed to feel like.
The team just got bigger.
You already know Frannie Staley, who has been running our Instagram and making our ideas look better than they deserve. And Jonathan Marx (Jack), whom you are getting to know on a weekly cadence via the podcast.
I want to introduce two new Research Assistants, Ben Warburton and Claire Maddox. Both are working on funded research projects at the Haile College of Business. Claire will also be working directly with Decode Econ, so you will start hearing from her here.
Frannie and Claire are now the team behind our Instagram. Follow along to see how they translate the newsletter and podcast into content worth sharing and saving.
This is a real team now. It feels like one. We are having a whole lot of fun.
We are missing one part: an editor/clipper. Reach out if you are interested. I still edit all the episodes and Reels; it’s time to pass that on to someone else.
On standing out in a crowded space.
There are more economic newsletters today than ever before. That is a good thing. More people are paying attention to economics, and that is exactly what we want. But it also means the question of differentiation matters more than it used to.
Here is where I think Decode Econ lives: we are not a markets newsletter. We are not a policy newsletter. We are not trying to predict what the Fed does next quarter.
We are trying to answer a harder question: what does this actually mean for you?
This newsletter is for the person reading on their phone before work, wondering why the economy that looks fine in the headlines feels nothing like the one they are living in. It is for the person in line to board a flight, but they are reading the latest news and want to understand the latest policy shift that might affect their life, but do not know how just yet. It is for the student at the back of an economics class who asks why any of this matters.
We write to make economics relevant. We write FOR you.
Vegas bound.
This week, I am heading to Las Vegas for CTREE, the Conference on Teaching and Research in Economic Education.
CTREE is where economists who care about how we teach economics gather to share research, swap ideas, and push the field forward. This is the 15th annual conference, organized by the American Economic Association, to be held May 27–29. About 300 economists, educators, and researchers in one place, asking the same question I think about every day: how do we improve economics education?
If you are attending, please reach out. I would love to connect.
If you aren’t, here is the conference program so you can see what you are missing out on.
I will also be attending Journal of Economics Teaching at the end of July. I hope you make that one. More on that in the future.
Back to the show.
This week, I asked Jack a simple question. Why does Gen Z complain but not show up at the polls?
What he said next surprised me.
I hate nepotism. We’re in a nepotistic government right now. A hundred votes with the Republican party, five against, and the president called him a moron. Word for word. What are we doing?
That frustration is real. And it is connected to everything else we talk about in this episode, the K-shaped economy, prediction markets, and congressional trading. It all comes back to the same thing. Trust. And what happens to an economy when people lose trust.
Watch the full conversation below.
00:00 — Welcome & intro
02:12 — The K-shaped economy: why the average hides the real story
06:50 — Economics has become the third rail, after religion and politics
09:15 — Congress is working less. Is that actually the problem?
12:04 — Gen Z, voting, and institutional trust
15:47 — Congressional stock trading: the incentive structure is broken
19:46 — Prediction markets are the new cigarette ads
22:40 — Capitalism runs on trust and hope. What happens when both erode?
25:44 — Where to find us this week
Links & resources mentioned:
Washington Post: prediction market ads appear every 4 minutes during sports broadcasts. This is a correction from the episode, where I say every 4 seconds.
Senate committee meets this week to examine prediction market oversight
OGE financial disclosures: 3,700+ stock transactions tied to Trump portfolio in Q1 2026
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Welcome Claire & Ben...
"K-Shaped Economy" has gone full Fonzie on water skis (Jump the Shark for the younglings!) CNBC had a report on ticket sales and misused the term as they tried to describe the disparity in pricing models for Taylor Swift versus Post Malone. Two very different markets.
*I think we're at ∑ shaped... some always "fine", some always "struggling", and the divergence within income strata. But "K" is easier for people to visualize.
Mike Johnson would rather put the House in Recess than legislate. It's easier to do nothing than something you have to run on. The funniest relationship on the Hill is Josh Hawley and Liz Warren, they agree on more than people assume and sometimes the result is useful.
Prediction Markets are tax revenue, thus the proliferation like traditional gambling ads. (The Senate will do nothing. Only one member of CTFC, enforcement is unavailable. Trump won't sit the remaining 4.)
*Will listen while exercising later, something tells me the blood pressure will go up not from your examination but the topics as a whole. Behaviorally these are triggers with the current political environment!
I am attending CTREE and I would love to connect.