Three Numbers That Say the Same Thing
We are back from break and excited to continue sharing the economic news you need to know and the latest market insights to help you navigate today’s complex economy. The mission of Decode Econ has always been about you, helping you understand your economy.
As we reset, here is a look at the latest macroeconomic data releases we follow regularly.
What we are covering:
Labor market data
Inflation
GDP
GDP grew at a sluggish 0.7%
The U.S. economy's growth slowed sharply in the final months of 2025. New data shows GDP grew at just a 0.7% annual pace in the fourth quarter, well below the original estimate of 1.4%. The government shutdown last fall was a big reason why.
The downward revision touched every part of the economy. Consumer spending, business investment, government outlays, exports, and imports all came in lower than first reported.
Prices are up!
The Bureau of Economic Analysis also released fourth-quarter inflation figures. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge, came in at 2.9%. That is well above the Fed’s 2% target.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% year-over-year inflation rate in the CPI. One important note: gasoline prices fell 5.9% over the past year, but that figure does not capture the recent spike in oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran. Future readings will look different. In the past month, oil has surged from $67 a barrel to $100.
The labor market is showing cracks
The February jobs report pointed to a weakening labor market. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.4%, but the bigger concern is the loss of 92,000 payroll jobs.
That is a sharp reversal from January, when employers added 140,000 jobs. January now looks like the outlier. The February number fits a broader pattern of softening in the labor market, and that is an important story for you to follow.
We want to hear from you
How are you preparing for a softening labor market and rising prices? How is your economy doing?
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We're so back! Interested to see how the war in Iran continues to impact these indicators.
The PCE numbers for Insurance (up $16B) and Housing/Utilities (up $24.4B) are very concerning. There's likely some ACA rollback noise inside the insurance numbers with people having paid before subsidies were worked out. AI is creating inflation inside Electricity consumption and some weather related issue with the East Coast seeing higher snow than previous years.
Food is the seasonally adjusted mess. From my thoughts (bias), the weather related purchasing and January always has weird sub-category movement on goods related to football playoffs. It's up $8.3B
Now the "E"-shaped recovery? Dividends and the increase in COLA for Social Security pushed a little Wealth Effect with people purchasing items in post-holiday sales or spent the cash grandparents gave.
*Welcome Back!!