I think your point about time consistency is incredibly important. I would blame social media for this shift, if that wouldn't make me sound old and crotchety. From my vantage point, many young people believe that if they don't immediately have a house, at least two cars, and six weeks vacation, they are failures. The idea of building up your financial resources over time has escaped them. Gambling their current resources, makes that future reality that much more difficult to achieve. When I started out, I lived in a one bedroom apartment, clipped coupons and managed every penny. I was fortunate to be married so we had two incomes coming in, but there were student loans to pay off and a second car payment. I don't want this to sound like an old person rant, but too many students don't understand that most people start off on the poorer end. They aren't MrBeast, or Taylor Swift. Perhaps we need to teach them what to expect. An education will be worth it (in most cases). Blowing your money on sports gambling or Doge coin isn't going to make it better.
Gambling at the level we see it now, predominantly among young males, happens because they feel there is no hope. Social media does sell the falsehood that everyone else is doing great. People coming of age now were scarred by the Great Financial Crisis and don’t trust traditional pathways. Older generations were trained to wait for things, current generations were raised on immediacy. I want to believe they will forge a new pathway that suits them.
I hope they do, not sure what the pathway looks like. Especially since prediction apps and gambling platforms are targeting them. The ads I get are unreal.
Thank you. My Community College students are often mid-career, or simply did not have a pre-existing career, but now, in their 30s or more, really want one -- and they are angry that whatever kept them from starting at a higher point (often lack of privilege or immigration) is being compounded by a system that actively impedes their progress.
I mostly agree with the spirit of the comment, particularly the point about time inconsistency and the way social media distorts expectations. The assumption that success should arrive quickly and visibly makes slow, cumulative progress feel like failure, which helps explain why speculative behaviour can seem appealing. The reminder that compounding, patience and unglamorous discipline still matter is an important corrective, and it is right to say that gambling on sports or meme coins is unlikely to improve long‑term outcomes.
That said, the comment places too much weight on attitudes and education and not enough on structural change. Earlier cohorts faced lower housing costs, cheaper education and more stable early‑career pathways, so starting out poor did not imply the same distance from security that it often does today. Much of the frustration among young people is therefore not simply a misunderstanding of how progress works, but a rational response to weaker and slower returns to prudence. Resetting expectations may help, but it does not fully explain why the system itself feels less credible.
Hi Chris, both things can be true and that’s the point of the post. There are structural issues, access to economic mobility has decreased. At the same time our social measure of success has changed and our patience has dwindled.
I have shared in the past that entry level is broken, that’s the structural part. In this post I discuss entry level into work, but we also see this with entry level homes or entry level cars. They don’t exist.
I appreciate your comment. Please keep them coming.
The assertion that the economic system no longer rewards prudence reflects a widely held perception, but taken at face value it overstates the empirical claim. What has shifted is not the fundamental relationship between effort and reward, but the distribution, timing, and visibility of returns to prudent behaviour. The pathways through which sustained effort translates into economic security have become narrower and more contingent on initial conditions, while the variance of outcomes has increased. Under these conditions, long‑term planning and cautious decision‑making continue to dominate nihilistic alternatives in expected value terms, yet the weakening of the perceived effort–outcome linkage undermines their credibility. This erosion of belief is consequential, as it alters behaviour in ways that can further entrench disengagement and risk‑seeking.
Changes in time preferences are similarly shaped by informational and cultural dynamics, not solely by structural economic constraints. Contemporary media environments disproportionately highlight extreme successes and compress narratives of achievement into short time horizons, obscuring the slower, cumulative processes through which economic advancement more commonly occurs. As a result, conventional markers of stability and incremental progress are increasingly interpreted as insufficient or indicative of stagnation. This distortion amplifies uncertainty about the future and reinforces the perception that patience is irrational, even in contexts where long‑term strategies remain viable.
Within this framework, the turn toward speculation and gambling should be understood as a broader response to diminished agency rather than a simple substitution for lost opportunity. High‑risk financial behaviours offer a simplified causal narrative in which individual action appears immediately consequential, counteracting the diffuse and delayed feedback mechanisms characteristic of traditional economic advancement. Their appeal lies not only in the prospect of outsized returns, but in their capacity to restore a sense of control and coherence in decision‑making. In this sense, speculative behaviour reflects an attempt to reconstruct meaning and agency under conditions where established institutional pathways no longer provide a convincing connection between effort and outcome.
The career ladder being clogged is probably the most underrated driver here. Loss aversion usually stops risky behavior, but when the "safe" path feels like slowly losing anyway, gambling starts looking rational. I've noticed folks in their 20s now treat meme stocks and crypto less like speculation and more like a substitute for the promotions and wage growth their parents' generation had. The system basically inverted teh incentive structure.
OK -- Kyla has described the situation and what causes it. This is part 1 of a 3-part series. Part 2 is NOT how people have adapted -- by investing in crypto, skipping higher ed, becoming depressed, etc. Part 2 is how do we navigate this system as it is, in order to build a life which is as stable as possible under these circumstances? Networking, probably, choosing higher ed majors that are rewarding professionally and socially, investments that are most likely to result in the creation of a nest egg in a couple of decades, etc. Part 3 would be what policy choices would improve the system. My students (and I) are most interested in Part 2.
Yes. I don't suppose the post is intended this way, but to someone who is living inside the chaos that it describes, it could read like an accusation of short-termism without advice about how to avoid it. Yes, to everyone who hoped they did not appear curmudgeonly -- you did. Penance is to put yourself in the boots of real students (preferably not only at elite institutions) and suggest how to succeed under conditions of uncertainty, economic slow-down and blocked pathways to advancement, when short-termism seems rational.
I am happy to share some solutions. However, my post wasn’t a critique of the current generation, it was a support of their behavior based on the how the system looks to them. I discussed some of this in a previous post and lecture I gave. Here is a link to the recording. Would love to hear your thoughts on the generation divide. https://open.substack.com/pub/decodeecon/p/gen-z-and-the-skills-gap?r=eikdh&utm_medium=ios
Thank you -- very interesting. These are more like prescriptions for institutions of higher education than advice for struggling graduates. Nevertheless, some of these are IMHO how colleges should be thinking. We need to start out with this: I went to college in 1875 approx, when 17.6% of men and 10.6% of women graduated from a 4-year institution; let's say you attended college around 2000, when 27.8% of men and 23.6% of women graduated college; by 2015 women had surpassed men as college attendees; by 2019 35.4% of men and 35.6% of women graduated college. If I were a college looking at these numbers, I would right away realize that rather than the elite education of the 30s, and mostly upper middle class by the end of the 20th century, colleges are educating more and more middle class students, as well as picking up not just a few poor and immigrant students. That's supply; let's look at demand: The Pew Trust (https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/12/10/key-labor-force-trends/) tells us: "45% of today’s workers (in 2023) ages 25 and older have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 31% in 2000." Colleges should be VERY INTERESTED in what jobs those workers have. They should have people whose entire job is to find out in real time and make sure that their student population knows, so that they have a chance to adjust their degree to accommodate changes in worker demand. I don't know about your institution, but here at HCC we are educating a significant and growing proportion of high school students with Dual Credit programs. Colleges should be in constant contact with high schools in their catchment areas and their advisors, so that not only is Dual Credit education provided, but also more information on what jobs are available and what the pay rate is on average. This information is available online -- it should not be hard to harvest it with AI and make it available to students and prospective students. THEN YES -- initiate conversations with prospective employers from a position of strength, as an institution that is knowledgeable about labor markets, how their students fit in, what strengths they have -- meanwhile feeding back to students info on specifically what employers are looking for -- not only majors, but soft skills, experiences, social skills, etc.
What about all the data that showing that younger generations are outpacing previous ones in terms of income? How do we reconcile that? Seems to me an issue of expectations as Brian points out. See the graph from this post: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-against-boomers
Expectations are for sure at play here, as pointed out in my posts. As far as the graph shown, I have seen it and it is powerful image to support that Gen Z is better off, income wise.
I don't subscribe to the WSJ, so I can't read her full post, but I'm curious about the "so what next" angle of this all. I buy all the issues you bring up, but I wonder what tangible actions we expect young people to take on in light of it all.
Shaming older generations for the structural issues isn't going to change the structural issues that have made it so hard for young people to feel comfortable. If they wanted to help young people, they would. So what can young people do in light of it all?
1. Go out and vote. The “old folks” are pushing agendas and younger voters are not.
2. Get active in local community, make your voice heard. Otherwise old folks will protect their own home values NMBY impacts zoning policy and many other things.
Financial literacy/ behavior
1. A roommate and a starter car helps more than you think.
2. Invest in education, it helps with economic opportunity.
3. Pick a college you can afford, but choose education.
Your 20s are tough, regardless of the generation. I hate to say that, but it’s been my truth and everyone I know. Uncertainty is low, opportunity seem hard to come across. Effort and time are your comparative advantage in your 20s, choose wisely how you spend them.
While the top focuses on the young, there is a lot more that the older can do. Mentor, open doors, build pipelines. The older generation is pulling the ladder behind them, there is no reason for them to do so.
I am sure I can write up more, but I am in between sets at the gym!
I'm glad I could provide some fuel to your workout. I was very close to commenting, "Respectfully, so what?"
Your two policy recommendations were the two I had in mind as well. I appreciate the financial literacy angle, and it's one I often recommend to my graduating seniors. I often recommend buying yourself a nice gift with your first paycheck and then living like a college student for as long as you can.
I think your point about time consistency is incredibly important. I would blame social media for this shift, if that wouldn't make me sound old and crotchety. From my vantage point, many young people believe that if they don't immediately have a house, at least two cars, and six weeks vacation, they are failures. The idea of building up your financial resources over time has escaped them. Gambling their current resources, makes that future reality that much more difficult to achieve. When I started out, I lived in a one bedroom apartment, clipped coupons and managed every penny. I was fortunate to be married so we had two incomes coming in, but there were student loans to pay off and a second car payment. I don't want this to sound like an old person rant, but too many students don't understand that most people start off on the poorer end. They aren't MrBeast, or Taylor Swift. Perhaps we need to teach them what to expect. An education will be worth it (in most cases). Blowing your money on sports gambling or Doge coin isn't going to make it better.
I have struggled with that message. I don’t want to sound out of touch, at the same time it takes time to build assets up.
By the way, welcome back! Your comments have been missed, must have been a busy semester
Gambling at the level we see it now, predominantly among young males, happens because they feel there is no hope. Social media does sell the falsehood that everyone else is doing great. People coming of age now were scarred by the Great Financial Crisis and don’t trust traditional pathways. Older generations were trained to wait for things, current generations were raised on immediacy. I want to believe they will forge a new pathway that suits them.
I hope they do, not sure what the pathway looks like. Especially since prediction apps and gambling platforms are targeting them. The ads I get are unreal.
Patience is a virtue
I have also heard that patience is a privilege, I agree with both.
Thank you. My Community College students are often mid-career, or simply did not have a pre-existing career, but now, in their 30s or more, really want one -- and they are angry that whatever kept them from starting at a higher point (often lack of privilege or immigration) is being compounded by a system that actively impedes their progress.
I mostly agree with the spirit of the comment, particularly the point about time inconsistency and the way social media distorts expectations. The assumption that success should arrive quickly and visibly makes slow, cumulative progress feel like failure, which helps explain why speculative behaviour can seem appealing. The reminder that compounding, patience and unglamorous discipline still matter is an important corrective, and it is right to say that gambling on sports or meme coins is unlikely to improve long‑term outcomes.
That said, the comment places too much weight on attitudes and education and not enough on structural change. Earlier cohorts faced lower housing costs, cheaper education and more stable early‑career pathways, so starting out poor did not imply the same distance from security that it often does today. Much of the frustration among young people is therefore not simply a misunderstanding of how progress works, but a rational response to weaker and slower returns to prudence. Resetting expectations may help, but it does not fully explain why the system itself feels less credible.
Hi Chris, both things can be true and that’s the point of the post. There are structural issues, access to economic mobility has decreased. At the same time our social measure of success has changed and our patience has dwindled.
I have shared in the past that entry level is broken, that’s the structural part. In this post I discuss entry level into work, but we also see this with entry level homes or entry level cars. They don’t exist.
I appreciate your comment. Please keep them coming.
The assertion that the economic system no longer rewards prudence reflects a widely held perception, but taken at face value it overstates the empirical claim. What has shifted is not the fundamental relationship between effort and reward, but the distribution, timing, and visibility of returns to prudent behaviour. The pathways through which sustained effort translates into economic security have become narrower and more contingent on initial conditions, while the variance of outcomes has increased. Under these conditions, long‑term planning and cautious decision‑making continue to dominate nihilistic alternatives in expected value terms, yet the weakening of the perceived effort–outcome linkage undermines their credibility. This erosion of belief is consequential, as it alters behaviour in ways that can further entrench disengagement and risk‑seeking.
Changes in time preferences are similarly shaped by informational and cultural dynamics, not solely by structural economic constraints. Contemporary media environments disproportionately highlight extreme successes and compress narratives of achievement into short time horizons, obscuring the slower, cumulative processes through which economic advancement more commonly occurs. As a result, conventional markers of stability and incremental progress are increasingly interpreted as insufficient or indicative of stagnation. This distortion amplifies uncertainty about the future and reinforces the perception that patience is irrational, even in contexts where long‑term strategies remain viable.
Within this framework, the turn toward speculation and gambling should be understood as a broader response to diminished agency rather than a simple substitution for lost opportunity. High‑risk financial behaviours offer a simplified causal narrative in which individual action appears immediately consequential, counteracting the diffuse and delayed feedback mechanisms characteristic of traditional economic advancement. Their appeal lies not only in the prospect of outsized returns, but in their capacity to restore a sense of control and coherence in decision‑making. In this sense, speculative behaviour reflects an attempt to reconstruct meaning and agency under conditions where established institutional pathways no longer provide a convincing connection between effort and outcome.
I 100% agree with this take.
The career ladder being clogged is probably the most underrated driver here. Loss aversion usually stops risky behavior, but when the "safe" path feels like slowly losing anyway, gambling starts looking rational. I've noticed folks in their 20s now treat meme stocks and crypto less like speculation and more like a substitute for the promotions and wage growth their parents' generation had. The system basically inverted teh incentive structure.
OK -- Kyla has described the situation and what causes it. This is part 1 of a 3-part series. Part 2 is NOT how people have adapted -- by investing in crypto, skipping higher ed, becoming depressed, etc. Part 2 is how do we navigate this system as it is, in order to build a life which is as stable as possible under these circumstances? Networking, probably, choosing higher ed majors that are rewarding professionally and socially, investments that are most likely to result in the creation of a nest egg in a couple of decades, etc. Part 3 would be what policy choices would improve the system. My students (and I) are most interested in Part 2.
That’s fair. So you are asking for more, not just report what is, but to prescribe action?
Yes. I don't suppose the post is intended this way, but to someone who is living inside the chaos that it describes, it could read like an accusation of short-termism without advice about how to avoid it. Yes, to everyone who hoped they did not appear curmudgeonly -- you did. Penance is to put yourself in the boots of real students (preferably not only at elite institutions) and suggest how to succeed under conditions of uncertainty, economic slow-down and blocked pathways to advancement, when short-termism seems rational.
I am happy to share some solutions. However, my post wasn’t a critique of the current generation, it was a support of their behavior based on the how the system looks to them. I discussed some of this in a previous post and lecture I gave. Here is a link to the recording. Would love to hear your thoughts on the generation divide. https://open.substack.com/pub/decodeecon/p/gen-z-and-the-skills-gap?r=eikdh&utm_medium=ios
Thank you -- very interesting. These are more like prescriptions for institutions of higher education than advice for struggling graduates. Nevertheless, some of these are IMHO how colleges should be thinking. We need to start out with this: I went to college in 1875 approx, when 17.6% of men and 10.6% of women graduated from a 4-year institution; let's say you attended college around 2000, when 27.8% of men and 23.6% of women graduated college; by 2015 women had surpassed men as college attendees; by 2019 35.4% of men and 35.6% of women graduated college. If I were a college looking at these numbers, I would right away realize that rather than the elite education of the 30s, and mostly upper middle class by the end of the 20th century, colleges are educating more and more middle class students, as well as picking up not just a few poor and immigrant students. That's supply; let's look at demand: The Pew Trust (https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2024/12/10/key-labor-force-trends/) tells us: "45% of today’s workers (in 2023) ages 25 and older have at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 31% in 2000." Colleges should be VERY INTERESTED in what jobs those workers have. They should have people whose entire job is to find out in real time and make sure that their student population knows, so that they have a chance to adjust their degree to accommodate changes in worker demand. I don't know about your institution, but here at HCC we are educating a significant and growing proportion of high school students with Dual Credit programs. Colleges should be in constant contact with high schools in their catchment areas and their advisors, so that not only is Dual Credit education provided, but also more information on what jobs are available and what the pay rate is on average. This information is available online -- it should not be hard to harvest it with AI and make it available to students and prospective students. THEN YES -- initiate conversations with prospective employers from a position of strength, as an institution that is knowledgeable about labor markets, how their students fit in, what strengths they have -- meanwhile feeding back to students info on specifically what employers are looking for -- not only majors, but soft skills, experiences, social skills, etc.
Here is some great data: https://admissionsly.com/college-graduates-statistics/
What about all the data that showing that younger generations are outpacing previous ones in terms of income? How do we reconcile that? Seems to me an issue of expectations as Brian points out. See the graph from this post: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-against-boomers
Expectations are for sure at play here, as pointed out in my posts. As far as the graph shown, I have seen it and it is powerful image to support that Gen Z is better off, income wise.
https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-revolution-of-rising-expectations Good (very long) post on expectations and requirements
Thanks for sharing. Extremely long post but I am excited to give it attention when I can. I especially love that you read so many substacks.
I don't subscribe to the WSJ, so I can't read her full post, but I'm curious about the "so what next" angle of this all. I buy all the issues you bring up, but I wonder what tangible actions we expect young people to take on in light of it all.
Shaming older generations for the structural issues isn't going to change the structural issues that have made it so hard for young people to feel comfortable. If they wanted to help young people, they would. So what can young people do in light of it all?
That’s a fair question. Here are some of my own
Mindset
1. Redefine what success is.
2. Compound growth is real, patience is key
Policy
1. Go out and vote. The “old folks” are pushing agendas and younger voters are not.
2. Get active in local community, make your voice heard. Otherwise old folks will protect their own home values NMBY impacts zoning policy and many other things.
Financial literacy/ behavior
1. A roommate and a starter car helps more than you think.
2. Invest in education, it helps with economic opportunity.
3. Pick a college you can afford, but choose education.
Your 20s are tough, regardless of the generation. I hate to say that, but it’s been my truth and everyone I know. Uncertainty is low, opportunity seem hard to come across. Effort and time are your comparative advantage in your 20s, choose wisely how you spend them.
While the top focuses on the young, there is a lot more that the older can do. Mentor, open doors, build pipelines. The older generation is pulling the ladder behind them, there is no reason for them to do so.
I am sure I can write up more, but I am in between sets at the gym!
I'm glad I could provide some fuel to your workout. I was very close to commenting, "Respectfully, so what?"
Your two policy recommendations were the two I had in mind as well. I appreciate the financial literacy angle, and it's one I often recommend to my graduating seniors. I often recommend buying yourself a nice gift with your first paycheck and then living like a college student for as long as you can.